EURO 2028 Qualifying Draw Simulator
Pick your national team and simulate the EURO 2028 qualifying group-stage draw the way UEFA's computer does it. Every simulated draw respects the UEFA draw conditions, you can edit the pots, the Nations League quarter-final pairings and the play-off teams, watch your group come out, see every team's chance of a group of four or five and of every opponent, get a verdict on how hard your draw is, and share it as an image or a link. Part of every Football Meets Data plan with the simulators.
How the EURO 2028 qualifying draw works
- 54 teams, 12 groups: A-F with four teams, G-L with five; group winners and the eight best runners-up qualify, two places are reserved for hosts, the rest go to the play-offs;
- five pots by the interim 2026/27 Nations League ranking (12/12/12/12/6); Pot 5 fills the fifth place of groups G-L;
- the four hosts (England, Scotland, Wales, Republic of Ireland) and Northern Ireland are drawn into separate groups;
- the four Nations League quarter-final winners are each drawn into a different group of four;
- a group of five holds at most one quarter-final loser or one A/B, B/C play-off team;
- pairings UEFA keeps apart are excluded (Armenia-Azerbaijan, Kosovo-Serbia, Kosovo-Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ukraine-Belarus, Gibraltar-Spain), plus the winter-venue and excessive-travel caps of the last European Qualifiers draw until UEFA publishes the EURO 2028 list;
- balls come out pot by pot; each team goes to the first group in alphabetical order whose slot is open and in which the whole draw can still be completed - the same principle UEFA's computer uses.
EURO 2028 qualifying draw pots (projected)
The 54 teams seeded into five pots by the interim 2026/27 Nations League ranking (ranks 1-12 Pot 1, 13-24 Pot 2, 25-36 Pot 3, 37-48 Pot 4, 49-54 Pot 5). Until the Nations League league phase ends on 17 November 2026 this is our projection; the draw is on 6 December 2026 in Belfast.
Pot 1
- Spain (Nations League A)
- Portugal (Nations League A)
- France (Nations League A)
- England (Nations League A) - host
- Greece (Nations League A)
- Netherlands (Nations League A)
- Croatia (Nations League A)
- Germany (Nations League A)
- Belgium (Nations League A)
- Italy (Nations League A)
- Norway (Nations League A)
- Denmark (Nations League A)
Pot 2
- Wales (Nations League A) - host
- Türkiye (Nations League A)
- Serbia (Nations League A)
- Czechia (Nations League A)
- Switzerland (Nations League B)
- Austria (Nations League B)
- Sweden (Nations League B)
- Ukraine (Nations League B)
- BiH (Nations League B)
- Northern Ireland (Nations League B) - drawn apart from the hosts
- Slovenia (Nations League B)
- Ireland (Nations League B) - host
Pot 3
- Kosovo (Nations League B)
- Scotland (Nations League B) - host
- Hungary (Nations League B)
- Poland (Nations League B)
- Georgia (Nations League B)
- Romania (Nations League B)
- North Macedonia (Nations League B)
- Israel (Nations League B)
- Slovakia (Nations League C)
- Montenegro (Nations League C)
- Albania (Nations League C)
- Iceland (Nations League C)
Pot 4
- Finland (Nations League C)
- Luxembourg (Nations League C)
- Estonia (Nations League C)
- Armenia (Nations League C)
- Belarus (Nations League C)
- Bulgaria (Nations League C)
- Kazakhstan (Nations League C)
- Cyprus (Nations League C)
- Faroe Islands (Nations League C)
- Latvia (Nations League C)
- Moldova (Nations League C)
- San Marino (Nations League C)
Pot 5 (groups G-L)
- Malta (Nations League D)
- Lithuania (Nations League D)
- Azerbaijan (Nations League D)
- Gibraltar (Nations League D)
- Andorra (Nations League D)
- Liechtenstein (Nations League D)
Nations League quarter-finals (projected pairings)
The four winners are drawn into different groups of four; the losers count as busy teams (at most one per group of five).
- France v Greece
- Netherlands v Norway
- Spain v Belgium
- Portugal v England
Nations League play-off teams (projected)
At most one A/B or B/C play-off team per group of five: Wales, Denmark, Türkiye, Croatia, Israel, North Macedonia, Romania, Georgia, Hungary, Slovenia, Scotland, Kosovo, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Finland, Luxembourg.
How hard is your draw? Our verdict
For every draw we compute the expected points per match your team would take from the group's home-and-away fixtures, using the same Elo-based win / draw / loss model as our Nations League simulator, and rank it against thousands of simulated draws for the same pots. The figure is shown relative to your team's own average draw and as a percentile: the share of possible draws that are easier than yours. The verdict follows from the percentile:
- Dream draw - easier than 90% of possible draws
- Kind draw - 10-30%
- Balanced draw - 30-70%
- Tough draw - 70-90%
- Nightmare draw - harder than 90% of possible draws
Frequently asked questions
When is the EURO 2028 qualifying draw?
On 6 December 2026 in Belfast, after the league phase of the 2026/27 Nations League, whose interim ranking seeds the pots.
Who goes into a group of four?
The four Nations League quarter-final winners must each be in a different group of four (A-F), because the quarter-finals are played in March 2027 when only the five-team groups play. Quarter-final losers and the A/B and B/C play-off teams can be in any group, but a group of five can hold only one of them. The simulator shows every team's chance of a group of four or five.
Is the EURO 2028 draw simulator free?
No. Unlike the club league-phase draws it is part of the subscription: any plan with the simulators unlocks it, with unlimited draws, the probabilities and the downloadable cards.
Are the probabilities exact?
No - they are simulated over thousands of draws of the exact pots, after settling the quarter-finals with our model; each figure carries a small sampling margin.
Also try: Champions League draw simulator · Europa League draw simulator · Conference League draw simulator
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