Accuracy

Fantasy Forecasts accuracy: every projection scored in public

Every gameweek's Fantasy Forecasts projections are written down before the deadline and scored against the points that followed. Nothing is re-run afterwards: the numbers here are the ones a manager could have used.

Fantasy Premier League 2026/27

2,288 predictions scored over 5 gameweeks since Gameweek 6 (latest: Gameweek 10).

• Error (RMSE): 2.36 points; FPL's own expected points on the same player-gameweeks: 2.73.
• Mean predicted v actual: 1.85 / 1.95 points per player-fixture.
• Haul chance v hauls: 2.7% predicted, 2.5% observed (10 or more points).
• Top 10 picks: 5.48 actual points per pick for the ten highest-projected players each gameweek; FPL's own Top 10: 4.06.

Written down, waiting for results: Gameweek 11, 514 projections, deadline 21 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC.

UEFA Champions League Fantasy 2026/27

2,584 predictions scored over 3 matchdays since Matchday 2 (latest: Matchday 4).

• Error (RMSE): 2.68 points.
• Mean predicted v actual: 2.05 / 2.12 points per player-fixture.
• Haul chance v hauls: 2.8% predicted, 3.4% observed (10 or more points).
• Top 10 picks: 6.33 actual points per pick for the ten highest-projected players each matchday.

Written down, waiting for results: Matchday 5, 966 projections, deadline 24 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC.

How the record is kept

The capture is refreshed until the deadline and frozen after it, so what gets scored is what you could have acted on. Once a gameweek's results are in, every captured projection is set against the player's actual points.

The error is the root mean square error in points; for Fantasy Premier League the game's own expected points on the same player-gameweeks is the benchmark. The haul chance is the predicted chance of 10 or more points, set against how often it happened. The Top 10 picks are the actual points of the ten highest-projected players each gameweek.

The 2025/26 season replay, 18,126 pre-deadline predictions scored with the same metrics, is on the methodology page. Every gameweek's or matchday's row, the haul calibration and the captures waiting for results are the full ledger, part of Fantasy Forecasts on the Fan plan: open the ledger or see the plans.

Figures as of 11 November 2026; the live page updates after every scored gameweek or matchday.

Fantasy Forecasts · How it works · Open Fantasy Forecasts

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